PENNYMAC TPO on LinkedIn: #pennymactpo #mortgagebrokers #fedannouncement (2025)

The Fed - to Cut or Not to Cut, and "Dot Plots." Don't be confused by what the Fed says, pay close attention to what they actually do! Data will tell the Fed when & how they begin to cut Rates. We make financing your home easy. Call, click or text us today to learn how. (NMLS# 247149)

The Fed kept rates on hold for the 3rd-straight meeting. No surprise there. But its "dot plot" of Fed member forecasts for where policy rates will be in a year showed that 15 out of 19 members expect cuts of between 50 and 100 bps over the course of 2024.Also to note, from David Bahnsen's market commentary: "TheFed Funds Futures are currently pricing in a 100% chance of a 100 basis point reduction (1%) in the Fed Funds Rate by this time next year.There is a 24% chance of it being down 1.25%, a 37% chance of it being down 1.50%, and a 26% chance of it being down 1.75% – all by next year."Next year should be pretty exciting for rates!

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FINANCIAL FACT FRIDAYKEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE FED’S RATE DECISION AND POWELL’S PRESS CONFERENCEBy Bryan Mena, CNNUpdated 10:04 PM EDT, Wed March 20, 2024Washington, DC CNN — The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate steady Wednesday for the fifth consecutive meeting, as the central bank awaits more data to determine when to cut rates.The Fed has raised rates aggressively over the past two years in a bid to fight the highest inflation in decades. But while Americans continue to deal with high interest rates and inflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is still not ready to lower borrowing costs just yet.Wall Street is betting that the first rate cut will come in the summer.Fed officials are facing the difficult task of balancing the risk of cutting too soon with the risk of cutting too late — both of which come with consequences. That’s why the timing of that first rate cut is so critical, because it could either undo the progress the Fed has seen, if officials cut too soon, or it could fail to prevent the economy from sharply deteriorating, if officials cut too late.Fed officials also released a fresh set of economic projections Wednesday. They show that central bank officials now expect fewer rate cuts in the coming years than they estimated in December. A majority of Fed policymakers continue to expect three rate cuts this year, but they now see fewer in 2025 and 2026. They expect interest rates in the longer run to be slightly higher than they projected in December.For any mortgage questions that you may have please give me a call at 813.690.4359 or feel free to shop for a mortgage on our website at: https://floridaloans.shop/Wishing you all a Fabulous Friday! #floridamortgageoutlet #financialfactfriday #FEDMEETING #mojothelo #lendingwithintegrity #exceedingexpectations #equalhousinglender

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As expected, Fed leaves rate unchanged, removing tightening bias, while suggesting rate cutting isn’t necessarily imminent. “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate” to cut “until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably” to 2%. That statement pours a little cold water on what had been a well-bid bond market this morning after disappointing tech earnings and reignited regional bank headlines after NYCB/Flagstar blew their earnings report. Mortgages off a few tics here, but the 10yr yield remains under 4% to 3.97. Just getting started with this week’s Co-headliner…..J-Pow speech and Q/A up next.https://lnkd.in/gcfUKTj5

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💬 Kevin Ryan, CFO of Better.com, shared insights with Aly J. Yale from The Wall Street Journal BuySide on how the recent Fed rate cuts could impact certificate of deposit (CD) and savings accounts.“While CD and savings rates could see a slight decrease, a dramatic drop isn’t likely. Banks tend to move more slowly on lowering deposit rates, even when the Fed cuts rates.” Read more in the article below: https://lnkd.in/ekDA2d9f

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As expected, the Fed announced no change in the federal funds rate for the fifth consecutive time this year. It will be important to monitor the market, especially the inflation rate, and see what happens at the next Fed meeting on September 18, 2024.Continue to review your strategy, pivot with the market, and make sure to keep an eye on your floating pipeline. Speak with your Pennymac Account Executive today about how we are supporting our TPO Partners, or request an application and become a partner: https://lnkd.in/g4qjvduz#PENNYMACTPO #WholesaleLending #MortgageBrokers #FedAnnouncement

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cnbc.com: The Federal Reserve held steady on interest rates at the conclusion of its March meeting, and it’s sticking with its forecast for three interest rate cuts. Investors now have their attention focused on the upcoming press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m., where he will provide additional context around the policy decision.9 Min AgoDetails in Fed decision are dovish, strategist saysThe Fed keeping its expectation of three interest rate cuts in 2024 can be taken as a positive sign, even as the central bank kept levels unchanged at its March meeting, according to Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group“The details are quite dovish, because they’re leaving rate cuts on the table even while projecting slightly higher inflation and more economic growth,” Varghese said.— Alex Harringhttps://lnkd.in/ePmWu5eW

“Get your facts first. Then you can distort them as you please.”Mark TwainSince we can’t go a day without talking about the Fed, you’ve probably noted that some Federal Open Market Committee voters ratcheted back their estimates to two rate cuts in 2024 from the group consensus of three 25 basis point rate cuts. However, of potentially more interest to the mortgage industry is the central bank's massive balance sheet of Treasuries and Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that remains from the past 15-ish years of aggressive experimental monetary policy.The Fed has been open about wanting to eventually get back to an all-Treasury balance sheet, so it is expected that the central bank will not halt the run-off of Agency MBS that has averaged about $16 billion per month over the last six months. The central bank is expected to reinvest those proceeds into Treasuries, so where will demand for Agency MBS come from? Hopefully, domestic banks. U.S. domestically chartered commercial banks' total holdings of securities as a percentage of their balance sheet, and Agency MBS in particular, has ticked up over the last six months. This trend should continue as long as the relative value of Agency MBS remains favorable compared to investment-grade corporates and Treasuries.

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The Fed kept rates on hold for the 3rd-straight meeting. No surprise there. But its "dot plot" of Fed member forecasts for where policy rates will be in a year showed that 15 out of 19 members expect cuts of between 50 and 100 bps over the course of 2024. If you would like to keep on top of rate movement in 2024, comment below or direct message me RATES and I will add you to my Rate Watch email list.#mbshighway #mbssocialshare #mortgagemarketnews #mortgageintheknow

As expected, the Fed announced no change in the federal funds rate for the third consecutive time this year, and it will be important to monitor the market, especially the inflation rate, and see what happens at the next Fed meeting on June 12, 2024.Continue to review your strategy, pivot with the market, and make sure to keep an eye on your floating pipeline. Speak with your Pennymac Account Executive today about how we are supporting our TPO Partners, or request an application and become a partner:https://lnkd.in/gz7_Cigw #PENNYMACTPO #WholesaleLending #MortgageBrokers #FedAnnouncement

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